It's pretty clear that, back in 2001-02 when the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) was launched, we were at the peak of nanotech hype, or the Peak of Inflated Expectations. One of the authors, Josh Wolfe, of a nanotechnology report, which was intended for investors and published during those heady times, became somewhat infamous for a shameless marketing piece that included this:
"So please, get in on the nanotech revolution now. You stand to make a fortune…The nanotech revolution and the obscene profits it will bring astute investors who get in early-will carry on without you."
Meanwhile, although some were appealing to peoples' greed and ignorance, at Cientifica, we were appealing to peoples' intelligence and sensibility when we launched the first edition of the Nanotechnology Opportunity Report (NOR) in 2001. Although it managed to receive accolades, such as "The NOR will become the defining report in the field of nanotechnology," it did so without any predictions of vast fortunes to be made or even speculations on its value in market sectors beyond timelines for when its impact will be felt.
A characterization of the first NOR by Small Times that seemed fair to us at the time said, "Its sheer comprehensiveness and conservative nature is its strongest suit and may help to reset an industry that has suffered, like the rest of tech, from too much hype."
Well, seven years have passed since the launching of the NNI and the first printing of the NOR, and times have certainly changed. Although our competitors slowly came around to adopting (or co-opting) our basic ideas, such as, "There is not, nor will there ever be a nanotechnology industry during this time," now that we're in the midst of the Trough of Disillusionment, they've abandoned nanotech almost entirely and moved on to the next area they can hype with impunity: Clean tech.
Cientifica has made its reputation from being sensible, and sensible behavior often requires that you not follow the herd mentality.
With that in mind, after a five-year absence, we've just completed our
third edition of the NOR, in which we recognize that now is the time nanotechnology is beginning to make its presence felt in the economics of market sectors such as textiles, electronics and drug delivery.
As a result, after developing an economic model that we felt could measure the market impact of nanotechnology and predict rates of growth into the future, the new NOR provides what it avoided before: market sizes and growth rates for all of the key market sectors nanotech is impacting.
We expect the launch of this report will herald the point at which nanotech moves out of the Trough of Disillusionment and into the Slope of Enlightenment.
We always knew it would get there; it just takes a little patience to see it come to fruition.
Tim Harper, PhD, is contributing editor to The Real Nanotech Investor and president and founder of the international nanotech consultancy Cientifica.
